Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

3317

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

February 12 2020

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 46 33 58 56
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 77 70 90 132
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 4 2 9 12
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 223 106 140 144
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 49 29 77 77
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 8 5 10 8
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 3 3 3 5
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 40 36 40 91
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 35 86 102 96
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 15 22 12 9
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 39 20 26 58
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 80 172 135 104
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 50 61 70 50
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 50 50 56 42
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 22 21 78 57

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 2 0 2 2
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 5 3 6 8
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 1 0 1 0
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 2 1 2 6
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 4 9 13 11
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 3 4 1 0
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 3 1 1 4
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 2 7 6 4
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 8 6 4 4
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 4 2 1 2
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 11 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.04
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.06 0.04 0.07 0.06
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.08
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.00
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.07
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.11
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.20 0.18 0.08 0.00
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.07
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.08
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.05
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.05

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.04
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.06
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.10 0.05 0.06 0.08
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.06
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.01
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.09 0.05 0.07 0.05
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.05
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.10
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.05
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.06
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.12 0.07 0.06 0.07
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.05
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.05

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.42 0.14 0.24 0.21
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.38 0.09 0.32 0.22
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.49 0.08 0.14 0.29
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.28 0.13 0.32 0.26
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.39 0.48 0.11 0.02
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.29 0.40 0.22 0.08
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.48 0.11 0.29 0.12
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.37 0.17 0.26 0.19
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.32 0.11 0.24 0.34
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.27 0.07 0.39 0.27
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.61 0.20 0.13 0.06
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.44 0.13 0.16 0.26
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.19 0.24 0.34 0.23
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.78 0.08 0.04 0.10
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.62 0.13 0.07 0.19
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.05 0.02 0.86 0.06

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.38 0.16 0.24 0.22
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.35 0.12 0.30 0.22
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.44 0.11 0.17 0.28
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.28 0.16 0.31 0.26
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.36 0.43 0.14 0.07
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.28 0.37 0.23 0.12
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.44 0.14 0.28 0.15
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.35 0.19 0.26 0.20
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.30 0.14 0.24 0.32
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.26 0.11 0.36 0.27
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.53 0.21 0.16 0.09
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.41 0.16 0.18 0.26
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.21 0.24 0.32 0.23
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.68 0.11 0.08 0.13
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.54 0.15 0.10 0.20
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.09 0.07 0.74 0.10

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.100) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.080) (0.020, 0.080)
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp (0.030, 0.110) (0.020, 0.080) (0.030, 0.100) (0.030, 0.090)
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp (0.030, 0.220) (0.010, 0.100) (0.010, 0.120) (0.020, 0.180)
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.150) (0.020, 0.100) (0.020, 0.140) (0.020, 0.140)
Syr, F, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.050) (0.010, 0.060) (0.010, 0.040) (0.000, 0.030)
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.080) (0.020, 0.090) (0.010, 0.070) (0.010, 0.060)
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp (0.030, 0.180) (0.010, 0.090) (0.020, 0.140) (0.010, 0.110)
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.160) (0.010, 0.100) (0.010, 0.120) (0.010, 0.120)
Jor, M, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.110) (0.020, 0.080) (0.020, 0.100) (0.030, 0.100)
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.160) (0.040, 0.120) (0.070, 0.150) (0.060, 0.150)
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp (0.050, 0.220) (0.040, 0.150) (0.020, 0.130) (0.010, 0.110)
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp (0.030, 0.130) (0.020, 0.090) (0.020, 0.100) (0.030, 0.110)
Jor, F, < HS, never emp (0.010, 0.070) (0.030, 0.070) (0.030, 0.080) (0.020, 0.070)
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp (0.070, 0.200) (0.040, 0.110) (0.030, 0.100) (0.030, 0.120)
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp (0.040, 0.130) (0.020, 0.080) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.100)
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.100) (0.010, 0.080) (0.070, 0.160) (0.020, 0.100)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.001 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.019, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.013. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (-0.001, 0.003)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.000, 0.039)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.009, 0.035) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (-0.001, 0.003)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.003, 0.036)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.006, 0.031) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date